We all have an intuitive understanding of our world. We make sense of the world by looking at it through “common sense” lenses. These are almost instinctive, or hard-wired as they say in computerese. And the surprising truth is that nearly all of these intuitions are wrong. They are incompatible with the world we live in today.
Anatomically modern humans have existed for at least 200,000 years (or maybe even 300,000 years). For nearly all of that extended time, humans lived in small bands of around 150 individuals and survived as hunter-gatherers. Continue reading “Why we misapprehend the world”
I like Scott Adams. He’s down to earth, quite clever, knows how to make it. His book How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big: Kind of the Story of My Life outlines his system. He says — and I agree 100% — that goals are for losers. Winners don’t set goals; they create a system, and then work as hard as they can. If you have a good system, you will make it. The focus is on the process, not the outcome.[1]
We take the existence of governments for granted. This is understandable since we have been under some form of government all our lives, and we also believe that some form of government must have existed for as long as recorded history. Government appears to be something as natural as the air we breathe, and therefore we are easily persuaded that it must be as necessary as air. Not just necessary but also that it is a net positive. This does not stand scrutiny, however.
In the previous post, 
Economists understandably get worked up about the “Nobel” prize in economics (Nobel in quotes because it was instituted in 1968 by the Bank of Sweden “in the memory of Alfred Nobel,” unlike the Nobel prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine, literature and peace.)
I am a contrarian, someone who frequently takes a view opposite to that held by the majority. My default position is to view with the utmost suspicion any idea that is popular or fashionable. If the vast majority of the population thinks and believes in a certain way, I default to considering it to be wrong. If the majority believes proposition P to be true, I suspect that P is probably false. My null hypothesis is that the majority is wrong. Very rarely have I had to reject the null hypothesis.