The dumb enters in not recognizing that what matters is the likelihood of an encounter (with a shark or a mosquito) being fatal, given that an encounter has happened. If you happen to be bitten by a shark, you are more likely to die than if you are bitten by a mosquito. But the probability of getting bitten by a shark is very low, while the probability of being bitten by a mosquito is very high.

One reply to Bill’s tweet simply said, “Tell him that I’m coming and bringing along Bayes. Tell him, you hear, that Bayes is coming with me.”

Yup, Mr Gates, do brush up on Bayes’ Theorem. Thomas Bayes (1701 -1761) an English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister. Here’s a video that introduces the theorem.