Mr Bill Gates, you have a call from one Mr Bayes on line 1

Here’s a nice example of smart people saying dumb things in a momentary lapse of reason.

The dumb enters in not recognizing that what matters is the likelihood of an encounter (with a shark or a mosquito) being fatal, given that an encounter has happened. If you happen to be bitten by a shark, you are more likely to die than if you are bitten by a mosquito. But the probability of getting bitten by a shark is very low, while the probability of being bitten by a mosquito is very high.

One reply to Bill’s tweet simply said, “Tell him that I’m coming and bringing along Bayes. Tell him, you hear, that Bayes is coming with me.”

Yup, Mr Gates, do brush up on Bayes’ Theorem. Thomas Bayes (1701 -1761) an English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister. Here’s a video that introduces the theorem.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s