Mr Bill Gates, you have a call from one Mr Bayes on line 1

Here’s a nice example of smart people saying dumb things in a momentary lapse of reason.

The dumb enters in not recognizing that what matters is the likelihood of an encounter (with a shark or a mosquito) being fatal, given that an encounter has happened. If you happen to be bitten by a shark, you are more likely to die than if you are bitten by a mosquito. But the probability of getting bitten by a shark is very low, while the probability of being bitten by a mosquito is very high. Continue reading “Mr Bill Gates, you have a call from one Mr Bayes on line 1”