Adopting Innovation (from the archives)

Yesterday I wrote about the small stuff. That brought to mind some related stuff that I had written earlier and I thought I would refer to them here, for the record. Adopting Innovations:

People, societies, economies which can successfully adopt innovations tend to do better than those that don’t adopt innovations. The operational word is adopt. Innovations happen all over the place and all the time. Who innovates and how is not what I am concerned about although it is a fascinating subject in itself. What I am concerned about is the adoption of innovation rather than the causes innovations.

This is from one of the earlier It’s the small stuff, stupid posts:

I could go on and on ad nauseum about little innovations that have been around for ages and which we can adopt costlessly. I could fill volumes, honestly. There is a more important point all this is leading up to. That is, we need better technology, not necessarily ICT with its computers and cell phones and internet and world wide web. By technology I mean know-how — how to do stuff. The know-how exists. One just has to observe and learn and adopt. But observing, learning, and adopting takes thinking and effort; it is not as easy as simply buying a bunch of computers and firing off Microsoft Windows.

I am not a Luddite and I am not against hi-tech. Some of my best friends are techies and my education is in computer sciences and engineering and my salary is paid by a technology company. I just happen to believe that hi-tech needs a foundation and that foundation is made of lo-tech. Hi-tech without the lo-tech is about as useful as a car with a fancy engine but no wheels. Hey, that is a good analogy. A car with a fancy engine ain’t going anywhere in a hurry without wheels. And even if you do figure out that wheels are needed, you can’t go far if you don’t get round wheels. Square wheels just won’t do. Then even if you get round wheels, if the tires are not inflated, you get around with a lot of loss of fuel and in discomfort. That is, without air in the tires, your transaction costs are higher.

It’s the small stuff, stupid (once again)

Some months ago, I had recorded here the ideas of the Tathagata (It’s the small stuff, stupid) on the importance of taking care of the itsy-bitsy small bits. Today I was struck yet one more time about that truth. I was waiting at the Kandivali local train station when a huge board caught my eye. It was a listing of EMERGENCY and IMPORTANT PHONE NUMBERS.
Continue reading “It’s the small stuff, stupid (once again)”

The Spurious Pain of Rural Area Development — Part 2

Economic development is clearly possible. Examples of economies which have developed are not hard to find. Western Europe developed following the industrial revolution first and later the United States also developed rapidly. Japan’s development was closely followed by the development of the East Asian economies, starting with Taiwan. Given so many instances of economies–large and small–developing is persuasive evidence that economic growth and development does belong to the realm of the possible.

Why has not India developed during the last 60-odd years when other economies have during the same period? What have been the impediments? Those sort of questions need to be asked and seriously answered. These scribblings of mine essentially focus on exploring issues that touch upon India’s economic growth and development. Here I will continue where I left off the last time.

India’s development is predicated on rural economic development because over 70 percent of Indians live in rural areas. Rural development is not the same as the development of rural areas. Rural area development is a sufficient condition for rural development but it is not a necessary condition at all. For India, rural development has to focus on the development of rural people rather than development of rural areas.

The distinction between the development of the people of rural areas and the development of the rural area is important. Case in point: the development of rural America.

At the turn of the 20th century, the US population was largely rural. Agriculture and related occupations employed the vast majority of Americans. The government saw the need to make higher education available to the rural populations. That was the birth of the so-called land-grant universities. (The University of California, which I attended for several wonderful years, is one such.)

Providing higher education to the children of the rural families was the need. So did they start very little colleges in the tens of thousands of little rural communities? No. They started large universities for the children of farmers to go to. The idea was that these trained people would then go back to the farms and increase the farm productivity. But what was the actual outcome? The children of the farmers got urbanized and did not want to go back to the rural areas. As luck would have it, technologies developed in urban areas were successful in raising farm productivity which meant that so many were not needed in the farms anyway. And who developed the technologies and labored in all those urban areas? Those children of rural farmers who went to the colleges were the people who supplied all the necessary bits that the rural farmers required.

The point I am trying to make is that it was not rural development that made the difference in the rural areas. It was what happened in the urban areas that changed the rural areas.

The problem with rural development, in my considered opinion, is that the focus has been the village. Nothing wrong with focusing on a village, of course. But you do have a problem if you have to focus on 600,000 villages. The moment you try to focus on 600,000 thousand of anything — villages, songs, books, cars, you name it — you become unfocused and unhinged. That is what happened with rural development.

Where did it all start? I think it was MK Gandhi’s insistence on a village-based economy that started this unhinged process. Indians take very easily to hero-worship. It is easy to just worship someone and then leave all the thinking to them. All the netas (leaders) of India then took up the mantra of village development. Self-reliance was the corner-stone of this grand edifice of the village economy. And therein lay the trap.

{to be continued.}

It is morning in Africa

It is morning in Africa and
As the sun rises over the plains
The gazelle awakens knowing that
If it cannot outrun the fastest lion
It will be dead.
It is morning in Africa and
The lion awakens knowing that
If it cannot outrun the slowest gazelle
It will die.

It is morning in Africa and you had better start running.

Global Disasters, Insurance, and Moral Hazard

Suhit Anantula reports that globally an astonishing US$4 billion has been pledged for tsunami relief till date. That is an incredible amount. Assuming that about 4 million people are directly affected (certainly an upper bound), $4 billion implies a lower bound of $1000 per person. My guess is that the aggregate promised aid exceeds the aggregate annual income of the affected population. The actual aid delivered will probably be much lower than the pledged amount, if one were to extrapolate from the past performance.

Some have advocated the creation of a single world disaster relief fund. The Aid Charade by Jody Beihl suggests:

how about creating a single world disaster relief fund. Rather than one-upping each other with bids every time a disaster strikes and competing “beauty-contest-like” for top marks, each country could simply pitch in a yearly amount — say a percentage of their gross national product. The funds could then be drawn on when disaster strikes. That would rid us of what is starting to look like a charade of bidding and perhaps insure that real help comes on time, both when and where it is needed.

The idea is not new, of course. There is nothing is new under the sun. Adam Smith’s Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (published in 1776) informs us of one such scheme carried out in on a smaller scale. Galbraith is my guide to Adam Smith and he writes:

… were it not for Smith, we might not know that after a bad storm, or “inundation,” the citizens of the Swiss canton of Underwald (Unterwalden) came together in an assembly where each publicly confessed his wealth to the multitude and was then accessed,pro rata, for the repair of the damage.

{Source: The Essential Galbraith (pg 157) Houton Mifflin Company 2001.}

The idea is that of spreading the cost of recovery across the entire population of the globe. A sort of insurance payment where the premium is paid according to the ability to pay of various parties. There are two problems. First, how do you ensure that people pay. Second, what about moral hazard? It is a well-known problem that if one is insured against loss, then one may not exercise due caution and take unnecessary risks. If, for example, the government insures people against flood damage, then people will build on flood-prone areas knowing that they will be bailed out in case of disaster. This is normal human behavior. Moral hazard examples abound. Drivers take more risks in cars which are fitted with air-bags and seat-belts.

I have worked out an ingenious way around the problem of moral hazard. It will have to wait, however. I want at least a few people to buy the book. ***insert appropriate emoticon here***

The Spurious Pain of Rural Area Development

The story goes that a man goes to a Chinese acupuncturist for treating his headache. The doctor examines the man thoroughly and then starts to stick needles into the patient’s forearm. “Doctor,” the patient complains, “I have a headache. Why are you concentrating on my arm?” The doctor smiles and says, “See arm, see head. See! they are connected!”

Simple story but has a great deal of wisdom. The body is a unity and when one bit hurts, it is a signal that there is something wrong with the system. The pain may be localized but that does not necessarily mean that the cause of the pain is in the same location. In fact, it may even be that treating the pain will merely mask the symptom and not address the deeper cause. Superficial treatments could make things a lot worse because resources may be misdirected and precious time would be lost. In any sufficiently complex system, a holistic approach is a must for diagnosing and treatment of problems.

A personal anecdote. A friend’s wife who was in her late 20’s suddenly started having severe backache. They spent several months going to doctors who concentrated on the muscular-skeletal system and various chiropractors treated her. But unfortunately the back-pain was in fact just a symptom of kidney cancer. By the time they diagnosed that, it was rather too late.

An economy, much like the human body, is a complex system with various interconnected bits and dependencies, both internal and external. A holistic approach to the diagnosis and treatment of underdevelopment of economies is absolutely essential. Any competent development economist realizes the above of course. The catch is that to operationalize that insight is a non-trivial task. Furthermore, while the basic diagnosis and the treatment can be articulated by economists, the implementation (at least in a major part) involves politics, culture, and other such areas that are even more messy than economics.

The point to remember is that the problem we are addressing is not simple and simplistic solutions, however politically feasible, may be inadequate. One of the greatest dangers is posed by an incomplete understanding of the real problem. I call it the “Spurious Pain” problem. The so-called “Digital Divide” is one such. Among the more brain-damaged solutions to that spurious pain: PCs in every village. (I have written about this elsewhere in this blog.) Another example: farmers cannot pay for electricity. Solution to that spurious pain: free electricity for farmers.

The matter with spurious pain solutions is that instead of solving the problem, it actually accentuates the causes of the problem and one is faced with a bigger problem down the road than the one that one started off with.

Now on to the larger matter at hand. India’s development engages a lot of attention. India’s development is predicated—correctly, in my considered opinion—on rural development because around 70 percent of Indians live in rural areas. The first impulse, therefore, is to conclude that for India to develop, rural areas must be developed. For the moment, let us set aside the issue as to what exactly do we mean by “development.” Let us assume that meaning of “development” is common knowledge, knowing full well that it needs to be rigorously defined if we are serious about solving the problem of development.

The question I would like to explore here is this: Is rural development the same as development of rural areas, or is it development of the people who live in rural areas? My contention first is that the two are not the same. The solution to rural underdevelopment (and consequently to the development of the entire economy) would depend on that distinction. Second, I contend that, under certain conditions which exist in India, development of the rural areas may not be feasible at all. I argue that we should be addressing ourselves to the development of rural people, and not rural areas. In fact, I submit that it is the misplaced emphasis on the development of rural areas which is posing an impediment to India’s economic growth.
{Continued here.}

The IndiBloggies 2004

The IndiBloggies 2004 voting is under way. Some well-meaning person nominated this blog in the category Best Indiblog. I kid you not. So if you are one of the half a dozen readers of these ramblings, and if you have nothing better to do, do hop on over there and vote for some of the excellent blogs listed. Vote early and vote often, as they say. I would have surely won the award if I had Bush’s team of Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, Cheney and gang to fix the votes for me. But then I don’t and so I won’t. Pity really. It would have loooked good on my resume. Not that it would have made much of a difference to my resume. It is so pathetic that only a couple of Nobel Prizes would give it sufficient credibility for me to get a decent job. But as the man replied when he was asked by the judge why he mugged his own grandmother for a dollar, and he replied, “Your honor, every buck helps”, I too say, my resume needs all the help it can get.

Learning How to Think, to Fast, and to Wait

When Kamala, the courtesan in Hermann Hesse’s novel Siddhartha asked the young brahmin ascetic what skills he had, he replied that he has learnt “how to think, how to wait, and how to fast.” To my mind, that is a complete education. Being able to fast is the ability to live on a limited amount. Freedom is inversely proportional to the external resources one needs to survive. One is free only to the extent that one does not depend on resources external to oneself. Continue reading “Learning How to Think, to Fast, and to Wait”

Where it is folly to be wise …


Calvin: It’s true, Hobbes. Ignorance is bliss.


Once you know things, you start seeing problems everywhere…

And once you see problems, you feel like you ought to try to fix them…

And fixing problems always seems to require personal change…

And change means doing things that aren’t fun! I say phooey to that!

But if you are willfully stupid, you don’t know any better, so you
can keep doing whatever you like!


The secret of happiness is short-term, stupid self-interest!


Hobbes: We’re heading for that cliff!


Calvin: I don’t want to know about it.


[They go over a cliff and land in a heap at the bottom.]


Hobbes: I’m not sure I can stand so much bliss.


Calvin: Careful! We don’t want to learn anything from this.

from the incomparable comic strip
Calvin and Hobbes

Forever Trembling on the Brink (Of Numbers)

The extent of the damage and loss of life due to the tsunami has now become clear. Soumen Chakrabarti emailed me and wrote:

You recently wrote:

That is why I claim that natural disasters like the recent tsunami cannot hold a candle to the destructive power of humans.

I did a little arithmetic that adds support to your statement from unexpected quarters. This sounds very insensitive but is not really so. Each and every person destroyed by the tsunami is irreplaceable. I was trying to comprehend the enormity of the destruction through comparative numbers, when I was struck by a yet more stupendous scale that boggled the mind.
Continue reading “Forever Trembling on the Brink (Of Numbers)”