In the Tenth Five Year Plan the Planning Commission has outlined India’s human development goals and targets for the next five to 10 years. Most of these are related to and are more ambitious than the Millennium Development Goals.
Human development is a multifaceted and complex process. There are many dimensions along which development occurs and there are complex interdependencies and linkages between these dimensions. (In mathematical terms, you may say that these dimensions are not mutually orthogonal.) Due to these dependencies and linkages, attaining goals is not a simple process of randomly enumerating them and then arbitrarily attempting to work on each subgoal. The enumeration of the goals itself should reveal some of the dependencies. Care must be taken to distinguish between causes and effects, between underlying causes and their symptoms.
India’s Human Development goals (listed in its entirety in the extended part of this entry) enumerates them randomly. Indeed, the first “goal” is Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012. I disagree. Poverty cannot be reduced by declaring it as a goal. If indeed it were that easy, we should reduce poverty by 100 percent, and not pussy-foot around the place with goals of reducing it by only five percentage points.
Poverty reduction is the combined effect of a number of other ‘goals’ that one may have. For instance, poverty will be reduced if these were to happen.
1. Control population growth.
2. Increase access to education.
3. Provide access to credit.
4. Have a rational labor and industrial policy.
If you do all the above (and more, perhaps) successfully, the outcome will be reduction in poverty. Whether that is a 5 percentage points reduction or a 50 percentage points only time will tell.
Similarly the item about ‘Maternal Mortality Ratio’. The reduction in MMR is a result of other factors such as maternal nutrition, gaps between pregnancies, availability of pre-natal medical care, and so on.
To me, the goals ring hollow. Expect for the change in the dates (the 10th Five Year Plan runs between 2003 and 2007), something like this has always existed. Making up the plans occupy some bureaucrats and I don’t think anyone takes them seriously.
If there was an incentive for people to state realistic goals and achieve them, then we could have a honest goal setting exercise. For instance, suppose if the goals were not achieved, those setting the goals were to lose their jobs, they would not set these goals at all. They would then think very clearly and figure out what the factors are that, if obtained, would lead to certain results. These bureaucrats would then list out the factors and say in the end, “Don’t know by how many points exactly will poverty be reduced but it will be reduced if the factors are obtained.”
My (incomplete) list of factors need to be targeted for achieving development
MONITORABLE TARGETS FOR THE TENTH PLAN AND BEYOND
* Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012;
* Providing gainful and high-quality employment at least to the addition to the labour force over the Tenth Plan period;
* All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by 2007;
* Reduction in gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50 per cent by 2007;
* Reduction in the decadal rate of population growth between 2001 and 2011 to 16.2 per cent;
* Increase in Literacy Rates to 75 per cent within the Tenth Plan period (2002-3 to 2006-7);
* Reduction of Infant mortality rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012;
* Reduction of Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012;
* Increase in forest and tree cover to 25 per cent by 2007 and 33 per cent by 2012;
* All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water within the Plan period;
* Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012.
HIV/AIDS targets within the Tenth Plan period:
80% coverage of high risk groups through targeted interventions;
90% coverage of schools and colleges through education programmes;
80% awareness among the general population in rural areas;
reducing transmission through blood to less than 1%;
establishing of at least one voluntary testing and counselling centre in every district;
scaling up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission activities up to the district level;
achieving zero level increase of HIV /AIDS prevalue by 2007)
Malaria targets within the Tenth Plan period
ABER (Annual Blood Examination Rate) over 10 per cent
API (Annual Parasite Incidence) 1.3 or less
25% reduction in morbidity and mortality due to malaria by 2007 and 50% by 2010 (NHP 2002)