Economic Policies Matter

Economic policies matter. All else being equal, lousy economic policies create lousy economies.

Individually people all over the world have approximately the same natural endowments. What makes a difference is the nurture provided by the environment. And that environment is exogenous to an individual but endogenous to the entire collection of individuals which is called the society or the economy.

The assembly-line is an advance in technology which once invented was available to whoever wanted to use it. Its adoptin, however, is dependent upon the institutions and consequently the economic policies of the economy. The US has been lucky to be endowed with vast natural resources, a very motivated labor force, and enlightened leaders who created the institutions that create wealth (and to some extent distribute that wealth.) It is not possible for India to duplicate the trajectory that the US took because times and technology have changed. India cannot enslave about 100 million people, for example, to work on its cotton fields. The present day alternative is sweat shops. India could have had the option of going that route if its economic policies were not so inimical to foreign direct investment. The ethics of sweatshop are complex but the economics are fairly well-understood.

India could have leap-frogged the manufacturing stage and gone straight from the agricultural stage to the information/service stage. The snag was that we neglected universal primary education and therefore hobbled ourselves. Even now it is not too late provided that instead of the inefficient subsidies that bleed the public purse, we start concentrating on educating the hundreds of millions. Fortunately the technology is available to do so inexpensively. Whether the economic policies of the government allows this miracle to happen or not depends on the telecommunications policies.

I am afraid that the indications are that the government’s objective in the telecommunications sector is short-term revenue maximization instead of public welfare maximization. On the one hand it talks loudly about the need for affordable telephones for all, and on the other hand it imposes unsustainably heavy burdens of license fees, revenue sharing and taxes on entrants to the sector. This suppresses the investment and consequent expansion of the sector.

Use it instead of merely exporting IT.

ICT and Development

ICT presents an opportunity for developing countries to make more efficient use of the available resources. However, ICT is neither necessary nor sufficient for economic development. The advanced industrialized countries were underdeveloped (by today’s standards) once upon a time and their transition from subsistence to a modern exchange economy did not involve modern ICT.

In contrast to the experience of the advanced industrialized countries, the developing countries find ICT available to them at a much earlier stage of their development. These economies don’t have highly optimized economies and the use of ICT has the potential to help them transit from a subsistence to an exchange economy relatively rapidly. For this to happen, ICT must be targeted for domestic use, and not just seen as an avenue for foreign exchange earnings.

ICT is arguably strategically important for economic growth of all less developed countries (LDCs). However, government policies tend to emphasize only the export-led growth potential of ICT. India’s success in the IT-export sector is often used as an example to be emulated by countries similarly placed along the development spectrum. It is important to recognize that while IT export-led growth is an attractive goal, it is not as relevant for sustainable economic growth for rural India. However, a policy that stresses the use of ICT within the country could lead to the development of a domestic IT industry that can serve as an engine of growth by its direct contribution to job creation and GDP growth in rural India, in addition to its contributions to the urban economy. (Needless to say, other appropriate technology can also have a multiplier effect on resources available.)

Production versus Use

The production of IT related products and services targeted for export markets is generally done in high-technology enclaves. The benefits of the production and the use of IT is therefore limited to the small number of producers in the LDC while the majority of the benefits accrue to the users of the IT products and services in the importing developed countries. The products address the needs of the importing countries and they gain significantly from the use of IT produced at low cost in the LDCs.

Increasing the Income Divide

While the IT-export sector may be earning foreign exchange through IT production, there is no benefit from the use of IT products and services to the country as a whole. The vast majority of the people are completely unaffected and do not obtain any gains from the use of IT; only the producers of the IT products increase their human capital. Consequently, the income inequality within the country itself grows which has adverse macroeconomic consequences.

ICT for Sustainable Economic Growth

For economic development to be sustainable, it has to be broad-based. IT-export led growth alone cannot result in broad-based growth because the knowledge-goods produced by the country are targeted not to a domestic market but to an export market.

Economic growth models emphasize the importance of capital – both human and physical – state of the technology and the dependence of growth on the size of the market. We view IT in this context as an enabler of delivery of services. Domestic demand for IT products and services will spur the domestic production of IT and knowledge-goods. There are important forward and backward linkages in the domestic consumption of IT products and services that go beyond the benefits attained by IT exports alone. For instance, the use of IT in the education and health sectors will provide a large user base which will not only have access to new technology but also participate in the information economy.

Evidence of the effect of ICT on Economic Growth

Is there any hard evidence that ICT has an effect on growth? Most of us believe that the ICT does have a positive effect on growth. In a recent book, Matti Pohjola reports that The Working Group of the United Nations Commission on Science and Technology for Development recommends that each country establish a national ICT strategy aiming at maximizing the benefits of ICTs and minimizing their risks. He concludes that

“… in recent years IT has had a strong influence on economic growth in industrial countries and at least in those newly industrialized countries (that is, Korea and Singapore) studied in this volume. Admittedly, however, developing countries seem to have neither invested in IT nor benefited from such investments to the same extent as industrial countries. There is concern that information is becoming a factor, like income and wealth, by which countries are classified as rich and poor. To prevent this from happening, developing countries need to formulate national IT strategies to promote the use of these new technologies.”

It can be argued that more than the production of IT goods and services, the use of IT goods and services is more critical for economic growth. The question whether ICT contributes to growth or not is akin to the question whether transportation contributes to growth. Both are instrumental and provided that they are used appropriately, growth enhancing. Investment in ICT for developing countries is not anymore an option than investing in a transportation network is an option. It is absolutely necessary, although it is far from sufficient to ensure growth.

The two most important functions for ICT are these. First, improving the functioning of markets. What to produce, how to produce, what to sell, how to sell, where to sell — all these are critical questions that directly affect growth. Clearly ICT is indispensable for this function. The second function is in the area of production and delivery of educational content. When the majority of the population is illiterate, the resources needed for educating them (and not just making them literate) is formidable. ICT provides the only hope of leveraging limited resources to address this problem.

The proximate causes of poverty can be seen as two gaps: the ideas gap and the objects gap. The objects gap is the lack of physical resources – too little land, too little capital stock, etc – that contributes to persistent poverty. The ideas gap is the lack of know-how about how to make the best use of the resources one has. It is the ideas gap that ICT can most effectively bridge.

The Case for India

India has had a reasonable amount of success in the export of ICT products and services. But until IT is used, it is hard to predict what exactly the impact will be. However, it is a reasonable expectation that IT cannot but have a beneficial effect by its use.

Domestic ICT use must be given the attention it deserves because only through broad-based ICT use can the benefits of modern technology be made available to all and bridge the income divide. Domestic use will have important linkages to the supply of human capital required for the export of ICT products and services.

For a large country such as India, domestic demand for ICT products and services can provide the necessary base for sustaining the industry and to shield it from external shocks. Therefore, India must create the institutions that encourage the use of ICT domestically.

The Lop-sided Sex Ratio (revisited)

Vivek’s reaction to my position on the lop-sided sex ratio is curious. He writes:

I find it impossible not to breast beat, bitch and moan about the murder of innocent girls because their ‘net present value’ is lower than that
of boys. I am wierd that way.

Yes, I think the foetuses has rights. Not neccessarily all rights. But the right to life except under well defined circumstances.

One should not only breat beat and bitch and moan about murder of innocent girls, one should actively fight with all one’s might to prevent that. Why stop at girls, one should oppose all murders, period. Anyone who advocates the murder of anyone based on low net present value should be considered deranged and dealt suitably.

My position is that the fact is that some people value female children less than male children. This is a lamentable fact but a fact nonetheless. I did not dictate that people value girls less. I am taking that as given and (at least for the present) unalterable fact. Breast beating may feel good but will do little to alter that fact. Altering that fact would be an end that all right-thinking people devoutly wish for. It may take a few generations. Until then, what is the most humane way to deal with the problem. Do millions of unwanted girl children have to suffer inhuman neglect? Can society protect the rights of children with as much gusto as the protection of foetuses? Which is the lesser evil: the aborting of female foetuses or the terrible fate of an unwanted girl child?

How would I feel if I were in the place of a girl who was beaten, malnourished, worked nearly to death, neglected, not loved, not had even the shadow of the prospect of a decent human existence? I would rather that I was never born. The suffering of a human being is a lot worse in my estimation than the aborting of a female foetus.

Your view of which is better would vary and therefore your policy prescription would also vary. I stand by my position that it is a second best world and the prohibition of sex-based abortion is a first best prescription that does more harm than good. It merely addresses the consequence and does nothing to address the underlying causes, many of which are economic.

India’s Wonderful Reforms

In an Indian Express article by Vijay Kelkar (Advisor to the Finance Minister) and Ajay Shah (Consultant, Department of economic affairs) ponder the question Why is this a very happy Diwali? (Oct 2003) Their answer is REFORMS. It is an interesting article and it belongs to the same class as the series of articles that Arun Shourie wrote around mid-August regarding the rise of the Indian economy.

The article by Kelkar and Shah essentially tells us that the Indian economy is not doing badly and that we would not be remiss if we indulge in a little bit of self-congratulatory back-slapping. They indicate with pride the progress we have made. For instance:

In a recent month, we added two million mobile phones, an event that made the global telecom industry sit up. Prices have crashed. In a truly ironic reversal of roles, land lines are now a luxury, mobile phones are cheap and ubiquitous.
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Education for a Nation

An old Chinese saying (I assume all Chinese sayings are old except the ones that come from the little Red Book) goes:

If you are planning for a year, sow rice; if you are planning for a decade, plant trees; if you are planning for a lifetime, educate people.

In the context of development, I think the last bit should be “if you are planning for a nation, educate people.” Especially, primary education. For among all the factors that are necessary for economic development, none is so basic as primary education for a nation. Primary education is the essential basic public good engredient without which there is no known receipe for development. Continue reading

The Skewed Sex Ratio

A report in the Indian Express of Oct 19th Where has the girl child gone? starts off with

The booklet cover says it all: Missing. Released by the United Nations Population Fund or UNFPA, it maps the declining child sex ratio (in the age group 0 to 6) in the country: 20 pages talk of the last decade’s grim reality of the ‘missing girl’ child.

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Corruption in India

From The Economist (9th Oct 2003) an article on the perceived corruption of countries.

Finland remains the least-corrupt country in the world, according to the latest annual index compiled by Transparency International, a Berlin-based organisation. The index, which measures perceived levels of corruption, focuses on the misuse of public office for private gain. The United States ranks as the 18th least-corrupt country, only a little less so than Chile. Botswana is reckoned to be less corrupt than Italy.

India ranks 83 in the list of least-corrupt countries. Finland is the least corrupt and ranks first; Singapore is fifth; Botswana is ranked 30th — thus leading India by about 50 places. Continue reading