The End of the Pandemic

For the last couple of weeks, I have been making the claim to my friends that the Chinese SARS-CoV-19 virus pandemic will be over by June 2021. I predict that by the end of 2020, there will be at least one safe and effective vaccine available in sufficient quantities to drive down the infection rate to the point that the virus is essentially eliminated.

Predictions are easy to make. Like calling spirits from the vasty deeps, anyone can do it, as Hotspur pointed out to Glendower. Continue reading “The End of the Pandemic”

Don’t Ask me About the Economy

When people get to know that I am an economist, for instance on a flight, I often get asked about the economy or even the stock market. I just make up some stuff if the mood strikes me but sometimes I tell them that I don’t know. You tell me, I say.

As it happens, I am not interested in the economy per se. I am a serious student of economics but am only marginally interested in the economies of countries. What’s reported in the media regarding macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, GDP growth rates , etc., are to me mostly noise that can be profitably ignored. News is mostly noise anyway. It’s literally noise in the case of TV news but also figuratively speaking news is noise because the signal is hard to discern in the meaningless drivel that gets shoveled around. Continue reading “Don’t Ask me About the Economy”

What I Believe

My normative ethical position has a simple side-constraint[1] which is that it is immoral to enslave people or to impose costs on them. Enslaving people entails using them for one’s own ends, and it is a violation of rights of others. Each individual has a right to his body, labor and talents. Using a person in service of one’s own ends is impermissible. Here nothing is said about what ends one may pursue. The only imperative — a categorical imperative and not a contingent imperative — is that enslaving others is a violation of their rights to self-ownership.

I subscribe to deontological ethics.[2] That means, one is morally obligated to do one’s duty, whatever that may be. This is distinct from consequentialist ethics which hold that the right thing to do is whatever has good consequences. One variety of consequentialist ethics is utilitarianism which views moral actions to be those that result in the greatest good for the greatest number. Continue reading “What I Believe”

Open Thread — Ask me Anything

* Molly’s kitchen garden flowers

Been a few days since the last entry on the blog. To jump start this stalled system here’s an open thread. What’s on your mind?

The purple flowers on the left are from a friend’s kitchen garden in Westmont, IL. Click on the image to embiggen in a new tab. Below, just for fun, I’d like to present two quite unrelated videos. I imply nothing by the conjunction. I hope you get a laugh out of them. Continue reading “Open Thread — Ask me Anything”

Was the British Empire Good for the World

The world today is quite different from the world of 1945, when the last world war ended. The map above broadly identifies colonies of the Western/European powers. (Click on the map to embiggen.)

Great Britian, an island in the North Atlantic Ocean off the northwest coast of continental Europe, is around 210,000 sq kms. In 1945, in just the Indian subcontinent, Britian colonized an area 22 times larger than its home territory, or around 4.5 million sq kms (India – 3.3m, Pakistan 0.9m, Bangladesh 0.13m sq kms.)

Practically all parts of the world at some time in the not too distant past have been under the control of the European powers — Britain, France, Portugal, Spain, The Netherlands and Belgium. Britain has been the most successful. The list of countries that were at some point controlled by the British is really long. Here’s a list (from this wiki page.) Continue reading “Was the British Empire Good for the World”

Ennio Morricone. RIP.

I am sad to  learn that Ennio Morricone passed away today in Rome. He was 91 years old. During his career as a music composer, he scored the music for an unbelievable over 400 movies.

I’ve been a fan of his music for over 40 years and had the pleasure of introducing many of my friends to his music. People familiar with the tunes of “sphagetti westerns” such as “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly” generally don’t know the name of the composer. Of all the music he wrote, my favorite is the score for the 1986 film “The Mission.” The basic musical theme is outlined in the song “Gabriel’s Oboe.” Listen. Continue reading “Ennio Morricone. RIP.”

Fourth of July Fireworks

Some people in Los Angeles, CA appear to have decided to ignore the license-permit raj regarding fireworks and celebrated the birth of the United States of America with real fireworks. One twitter user posted a video with the message:

IN THY FACE AUHORITARIAN SWINE! SO HAPPY AND PROUD! GOD BLESS AMERICA!

Continue reading “Fourth of July Fireworks”

Orwell’s Rule for Economic Prosperity

I like the Americanism which says, “Good, fast, cheap: Pick at most two.” There is some overlap between any pair of the three but there’s no overlap between all three. Good and fast won’t be cheap; fast and cheap won’t be good; and good and cheap won’t be fast.

With regards to economic prosperity, I have something similiar to that “good, fast, cheap” rule. I call it “Orwell’s Rule for Economic Prosperity” which says “Rules, Leaders, People: Pick at least two.” If a country has good rules, good leadership and good people then its prosperity is guaranteed. That much is clear. But at the very least, you must have two of the three to have any hope of being prosperous. Continue reading “Orwell’s Rule for Economic Prosperity”

Stealing from the Poor

Here’s a simple illustration of how the government systematically robs the poor of their meagre possessions with total impunity. Consider a poor farmer who owns a small bit of land — say a couple of acres — which he farms. It provides him a subsistence existence because the land is not very productive. That land is not really suited for farming. 

Suppose that the land could be better utilized in some non-agricultural activity. Let’s say that by farming, the land provides an income of $1000, but in an alternate non-agricultural use such as in manufacturing the land would provide an income of $10,000. That means that the land value is much higher if it is employed in non-ag activity compared to farming. Continue reading “Stealing from the Poor”