Air travel is incredibly safe

The first controlled flight of a heavier-than-air machine was achieved by the Wright brothers on Dec 17th, 1903 at Kitty Hawk, NC. That flight had one pilot, zero passengers, zero cabin crew, zero in-flight entertainment, reached an altitude of 10 feet above ground level and covered 120 feet in 10 seconds.

Now we routinely pack hundreds of people into large jetliners that fly between continents, measure distances covered in thousands of miles, altitude in tens of thousands of feet above sea level and time traveled in many hours. It is estimated that in 2021, commercial carriers flew over 7 billion miles (likely translating to trillions of passenger-miles given the passenger volume).

TL;DR
Commercial plane crashes are exceptionally rare, with a fatal accident rate of 0.39 per million flights in 2024. Globally, airlines operated 40.6 million flights, carried 5 billion passengers, and accumulated trillions of passenger-miles, with only 46 accidents and 251 fatalities. In the U.S., commercial aviation is even safer, with zero fatalities in many recent years and a fatality rate of 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles. These figures underscore why flying remains the safest mode of long-distance travel, with odds of dying in a crash lower than winning a Powerball jackpot.

Accidents happen but rarely. Commercial jet plane crashes that result in both fatalities and hull losses are exceedingly rare. Air travel remains one of the safest modes of transportation. Air travel is far safer than other modes. For example, in 2022, there were 0.001 passenger deaths per 100 million miles on airlines, compared to 0.54 for passenger vehicles and 0.04 for trains. Meaning, car travel per mile is 540 times riskier than plane travel per mile.

Air travel is safe. The lifetime odds of dying in a commercial plane crash are estimated at 1 in 816,545,929, or effectively too low to calculate, per the National Safety Council. Consider the statistics on commercial plane crashes, flights, passengers, and passenger-miles. The data are reliable (modulo definitions used.)

Fatal Accident Rate: In 2024, the fatal accident rate for commercial aviation was approximately 0.39 fatal accidents per million flights (Source: IATA.) Furthermore, that rate has consistently decreased:

• • • • • 1970: 6.45 fatal accidents per million flights
        • 2000: 1.68
        • 2010: 0.89
        • 2024: 0.39

Total Accidents: In 2024, IATA reported 46 aviation accidents globally, with only 7 resulting in fatalities, out of approximately 40.6 million flights. This translates to 1 accident per 883,000 flights and 1 fatal accident per 5.8 million flights.

Fatalities: In 2024, there were 251 fatalities from commercial aviation accidents worldwide. Given the high volume of passengers, this represents an extraordinarily low risk. For comparison, in 2021, there were 176 fatalities globally.

In the U.S., commercial aviation is even safer. Between 2009 and 2025, there were very few fatal crashes involving large scheduled commercial airlines. For example, from 2013 to 2022, U.S. passenger airlines recorded only 12 fatalities.

Additional Statistics

• • • Global Flights: In 2024, the global commercial aviation industry operated over 40.6 million flights. This includes both passenger and cargo flights.
    • U.S. Flights: In 2021, U.S. commercial carriers operated 7.8 million departures.
    • Daily Flights: In the U.S. alone, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) handles over 45,000 flights per day, including commercial, cargo, and general aviation. Globally, the number of daily commercial flights is estimated at over 100,000.
    • Global Passengers: In 2024, airlines transported approximately 5 billion passengers worldwide.
    • U.S. Passengers: In 2022, U.S. commercial airlines carried about 823 million passengers (domestic and international).
    • Historical Growth: Passenger numbers have grown significantly over time, from 310 million globally in 1970 to 3.7 billion in 2016, and now 5 billion in 2024.
    • U.S. Passenger-Miles: From March 2009 to June 2024, U.S. airlines recorded 13.3 trillion passenger-miles, equivalent to 2.3 light-years or 535 million trips around Earth. In 2021 alone, U.S. carriers flew 7 billion miles, with passenger-miles likely in the range of 1–2 trillion annually.
    • Safety per Passenger-Mile: Between 2000 and 2010, the U.S. commercial airline fatality rate was about 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles, compared to 150 deaths per 10 billion vehicle-miles for driving (750 times higher).

• • General Aviation vs. Commercial: General aviation (that means private non-commercial flights) is big in the US.  General aviation has a much higher accident rate. In 2021, general aviation had 1,157 accidents in the U.S., with 344 deaths, compared to 24 commercial accidents with no deaths.

Bonus Fun fact: There are approximately 20,000 airports in the US, most of them for general aviation. See this post Airports from August 2022.

A moment of silence for those who died yesterday in the crash upon take-off of Air India flight AI171 from Ahmedabad bound for London. it was a fully loaded Boeing 787-800 Dreamliner. Only two passengers (of the 230 passengers and 12 crew) survived. Even more sadly, over 70 people died on the ground. Perhaps the deadliest aviation accident in India.