Technological Predictions

Two of the greatest science fiction writers of the 20th century were Isaac Asimov (1920 – 1992) and Arthur C. Clarke (1917 – 2008). Their works have enduring value. Based on a short story by Clarke, Stanley Kubrick’s 1968 movie “2001: A Space Odyssey” is among the best in its genre. Watch it if you can. Don’t say, “I’m sorry Atanu, I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

Asimov and Clarke, besides being great  science fiction writers, were particularly fascinating in their technological predictions. They combined rigorous scientific knowledge with imaginative extrapolation. Their vision of the future could be said to be prophetic even but there’s a distinction between prophesy and prediction.

The methodology behind predictions can usually be explained and scrutinized. Predictions rely on observable, measurable phenomena and logical inference, while prophecies typically rely on claimed supernatural, spiritual, or intuitive knowledge that can’t be empirically verified in the same way.

They started with solid scientific principles, understood technological trends and human nature. They considered not just the technology itself, but its broader implications. They also recognized that technological change often happens more slowly than enthusiasts expect, but more fundamentally than skeptics imagine

Clarke was known for remarkably accurate predictions. In 1945, he proposed the concept of geostationary satellites for global communications, decades before they became reality. His three “laws” of prediction are particularly instructive:

1. 1. “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, they are almost certainly right. When they state that something is impossible, they are very probably wrong.”
   2. “The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.”
   3. “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

Asimov’s predictions were often more focused on the societal implications of technology. In 1964, he made some striking predictions about 2014, including wireless technology, video calling, the prevalence of robots and the problem of leisure in highly automated societies.

Alright. Here’s Clarke in 1964. Remember this is long before most of the technologies that we are familiar with today. The context is the question what would the telephone system look like in the future.

And here’s Asimov in 1980.

Don’t you think that that’s amazing!? What technological marvels are we going to see in the coming decades? Tell me about it in the comments below.

Fun facts about Isaac Asimov:

• • • • He was born in Russia.
      • Was a claustrophile
      • Had a fear of flying
      • Was a teetotaler
      • Couldn’t swim or ride a bike

Asimov was a prolific writer. He wrote or edited more than 500 books, including 40 novels, 383 short stories, and over 280 non-fiction books. His books span all major categories of the Dewey Decimal Classification except for category 100, philosophy and psychology. (Source: wiki.)

He was once asked what he’d do if he was told by his doctor that he had only a short time to live. He replied that he’d type faster.

Now about Arthur C. Clarke. He was born in England on Dec 16th, 1917, and passed away on March 19th, 2008 in Sri Lanka which he had called home since 1956. Read about him at the Arthur C Clarke Foundation website..

Here are a few select quotes from Clarke.

• • • The greatest tragedy in mankind’s entire history may be the hijacking of morality by religion.
    • Every revolutionary idea seems to evoke three stages of reaction. They may be summed up by the phrases: (1) It’s completely impossible. (2) It’s possible, but it’s not worth doing. (3) I said it was a good idea all along.
    • As our own species is in the process of proving, one cannot have superior science and inferior morals. The combination is unstable and self-destroying.
    • The fact that we have not yet found the slightest evidence for life — much less intelligence — beyond this Earth does not surprise or disappoint me in the least. Our technology must still be laughably primitive; we may well be like jungle savages listening for the throbbing of tom-toms, while the ether around them carries more words per second than they could utter in a lifetime.
    • The Information Age offers much to mankind, and I would like to think that we will rise to the challenges it presents. But it is vital to remember that information — in the sense of raw data — is not knowledge, that knowledge is not wisdom, and that wisdom is not foresight. But information is the first essential step to all of these.
    • Two possibilities exist: Either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.

Be well, do good work and keep in touch.