India’s Human Development Goals

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP)website has a list of India Human Development Goals.

In the Tenth Five Year Plan the Planning Commission has outlined India’s human development goals and targets for the next five to 10 years. Most of these are related to and are more ambitious than the Millennium Development Goals.

Human development is a multifaceted and complex process. There are many dimensions along which development occurs and there are complex interdependencies and linkages between these dimensions. (In mathematical terms, you may say that these dimensions are not mutually orthogonal.) Due to these dependencies and linkages, attaining goals is not a simple process of randomly enumerating them and then arbitrarily attempting to work on each subgoal. The enumeration of the goals itself should reveal some of the dependencies. Care must be taken to distinguish between causes and effects, between underlying causes and their symptoms.

India’s Human Development goals (listed in its entirety in the extended part of this entry) enumerates them randomly. Indeed, the first “goal” is Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012. I disagree. Poverty cannot be reduced by declaring it as a goal. If indeed it were that easy, we should reduce poverty by 100 percent, and not pussy-foot around the place with goals of reducing it by only five percentage points.

Poverty reduction is the combined effect of a number of other ‘goals’ that one may have. For instance, poverty will be reduced if these were to happen.

1. Control population growth.
2. Increase access to education.
3. Provide access to credit.
4. Have a rational labor and industrial policy.

If you do all the above (and more, perhaps) successfully, the outcome will be reduction in poverty. Whether that is a 5 percentage points reduction or a 50 percentage points only time will tell.

Similarly the item about ‘Maternal Mortality Ratio’. The reduction in MMR is a result of other factors such as maternal nutrition, gaps between pregnancies, availability of pre-natal medical care, and so on.

To me, the goals ring hollow. Expect for the change in the dates (the 10th Five Year Plan runs between 2003 and 2007), something like this has always existed. Making up the plans occupy some bureaucrats and I don’t think anyone takes them seriously.

If there was an incentive for people to state realistic goals and achieve them, then we could have a honest goal setting exercise. For instance, suppose if the goals were not achieved, those setting the goals were to lose their jobs, they would not set these goals at all. They would then think very clearly and figure out what the factors are that, if obtained, would lead to certain results. These bureaucrats would then list out the factors and say in the end, “Don’t know by how many points exactly will poverty be reduced but it will be reduced if the factors are obtained.”

My (incomplete) list of factors need to be targeted for achieving development

  • education, primary as well as vocational
  • access to credit
  • access to markets
  • a transparent legal system and law enforcement
  • rule of law as opposed to rule by men
  • MONITORABLE TARGETS FOR THE TENTH PLAN AND BEYOND

    * Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012;

    * Providing gainful and high-quality employment at least to the addition to the labour force over the Tenth Plan period;

    * All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by 2007;

    * Reduction in gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50 per cent by 2007;

    * Reduction in the decadal rate of population growth between 2001 and 2011 to 16.2 per cent;

    * Increase in Literacy Rates to 75 per cent within the Tenth Plan period (2002-3 to 2006-7);

    * Reduction of Infant mortality rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012;

    * Reduction of Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012;

    * Increase in forest and tree cover to 25 per cent by 2007 and 33 per cent by 2012;

    * All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water within the Plan period;

    * Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012.

    HIV/AIDS targets within the Tenth Plan period:

    80% coverage of high risk groups through targeted interventions;
    90% coverage of schools and colleges through education programmes;
    80% awareness among the general population in rural areas;
    reducing transmission through blood to less than 1%;
    establishing of at least one voluntary testing and counselling centre in every district;
    scaling up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission activities up to the district level;
    achieving zero level increase of HIV /AIDS prevalue by 2007)

    Malaria targets within the Tenth Plan period

    ABER (Annual Blood Examination Rate) over 10 per cent
    API (Annual Parasite Incidence) 1.3 or less
    25% reduction in morbidity and mortality due to malaria by 2007 and 50% by 2010 (NHP 2002)

    A Brief Biography

    Atanu Dey suffers from a rather severe form of attention deficit disorder. After his bachelors in mechanical engineering, he moved to computer science and received a master’s degree. Product marketing at HP in the Silicon Valley kept him occupied briefly for six years. Then he traveled in India, US, and Europe for five years before realizing that he knew nothing about economics. So he studied economics at the University of California at Berkeley and received his PhD for his thesis on the Indian telecommunications sector. His critique of the New Telecom Policy 1999 is worth a read, even though his thesis will only appeal to hardcore economists and is guaranteed to distress socialistic Indian policy makers. Playing hooky while at UC Berkeley, he slummed at a junior university called Stanford as a Reuters Digital Vision Fellow 2001-02. Rumor has it that there he actually developed a model which he calls “Rural Infrastructure and Services Commons (RISC)” that promises to bring about the economic transformation of rural India. Someone asked him to demonstrate that claim and so he is off in India trying to implement the RISC model, leaving behind a lot of very relieved people in California where he spent nearly two decades. In his spare time (about 90% of his total time) he listens to classical music, practices Vipassana meditation, reads physics, gives lectures on Buddhism, maintains a sporadic blog, and occasionally makes sense. He plans to become a philosopher when he grows up. He would also like all to know that he is a published poet.

    Field Trip to Understand the Know-what and Know-why

    We are all familiar with technology and most of the time we mean high technology – digital technology in corporated in computers and telecommunications devices – whenever we say technology. But the term technology is not limited to high technology alone. Indeed, technology is any knowledge about how to do things. It is know-how that is often embedded in artifacts such as computers and cameras and cars, but it is not limited to them. Technology is also know-how embedded in processes. For instance, the knowledge of how to make fertilizer from biomass is also technology. It is know-how that combines inputs in a certain way to produce output.

    It is good to have know-how, or technology. But one can get enarmoured of what one understands and seek to apply that understanding indiscriminately. As the saying goes, to a person with a hammer, every problem appears to be a nail. Besides the know-how, for successful application of technology or knowhow, there are two other important bits. First is the know-what and the second the know-why. Without the other two bits, know-how is sometimes worse than useless.

    To take a specific example, consider the information and communications technology (ICT) and its application to developing economies. For the most effective use of ICT for development, one has to understand what the nature of the developing economy is, what are the failures that plague the system, etc. We have to know what the system is all about. Then we have to understand why the system is the way it is. That is, we have to also have know-what and know-why. Only then can the ICT know-how be applied to the problem of economic development.

    There are numerous ventures seeking to apply ICT to rural economies around India. A study of these projects is important for us understand their know-what, know-why, and know-how. We can learn from them and emulate their successes and avoid their mistakes. To do that, we are embarking on a field trip to visit projects around Andhra Pradesh around September 22nd. In the next few days, we will finalize our plans.

    Inspiration

    As one lamp lights another, nor grows less,
    So nobleness enkindleth nobleness.


    Those are lines from a poem (Yussouf by James Russell Lowell) that I had memorized in school many years ago. They immediately came to mind when I read about Dr. Govindappa Venkataswamy, or “Dr. V”, a few months ago. Reading about Dr V was empowering and I wrote Unsung Hero — Dr V in my weblog. Today Karthik emailed me another article about Dr. V. Once again, there was that same feeling of being inspired, of being empowered to do what needs to be done.

    Dr. V. created the Aravind Eye Hospital. I quote from the latter article:

    Since opening day in 1976, Aravind has given sight to more than 1 million people in India. Dr. V. may not run a business, but it’s important to note that Aravind’s surgeons are so productive that the hospital has a gross margin of 40%, despite the fact that 70% of the patients pay nothing or close to nothing, and that the hospital does not depend on donations. Dr. V. has done it by constantly cutting costs, increasing efficiency, and building his market.

    It costs Aravind about $10 to conduct a cataract operation. It costs hospitals in the United States about $1,650 to perform the same operation. Aravind keeps costs minimal by putting two or more patients in an operating room at the same time. Hospitals in the United States don’t allow more than one patient at a time in a surgery, but Aravind hasn’t experienced any problems with infections. Aravind’s doctors have created equipment that allows a surgeon to perform one 10- to 20-minute operation, then swivel around to work on the next patient — who is already in the room, prepped, ready, and waiting. Post-op patients are wheeled out, and new patients are wheeled in.

    Aravind has managed to beat costs in every area of its service: The hospital’s own Aurolab, begun in 1992, pioneered the production of high-quality, low-cost intraocular lenses. Aurolab now produces 700,000 lenses per year, a quarter of which are used at Aravind. The rest are exported to countries all over the world — except to the United States. (In order for Aravind to get its lenses approved for sale in the United States, it would have to pay for an FDA study and a clinical study, which the hospital cannot afford.) Aravind even has its own guest house, and students and physicians from around the world come to teach, study, observe, practice — and boost their training.

    So here I begin this journey with the proper invocations to Ganesha, the Remover of Obstacles, the One with the Broken Tusk, and with thanks to Dr. V. and his vision.